Manifest Vegas 2027 will bring together global supply chain executives, technology innovators, investors, and logistics leaders to explore AI, automation, trade uncertainty, and the future of end-to-end supply chain operations.

Manifest Vegas has unveiled its initial agenda for its 2027 edition, scheduled for February 8–10 at The Venetian in Las Vegas. The event will feature more than 175 sessions and 400 speakers, bringing together industry leaders to discuss the technologies, strategies, and partnerships transforming global supply chains and logistics.

The three-day conference will welcome senior executives, entrepreneurs, investors, and technology providers, including 80 startup CEOs and 50 Chief Supply Chain Officers from major brands. Discussions will focus on building more resilient, efficient, and competitive supply chains amid changing trade dynamics, technological disruption, and growing operational complexity.

AI, Automation, and Global Trade Take Center Stage

The Manifest Vegas 2027 agenda reflects the growing importance of artificial intelligence, automation, and data-driven decision-making across the logistics industry.

Senior executives will examine how organizations can navigate geopolitical uncertainty, diversify supplier networks, optimize costs, and translate investments in emerging technologies into measurable business outcomes.

The event will begin on Monday, February 8, with dedicated programming covering three strategic areas: Maritime & Ports, Sustainability, and Procurement. These sessions will explore the infrastructure, partnerships, and sourcing strategies influencing international trade and responsible supply chain operations.

The main conference program, scheduled for February 9–10, will feature more than 125 sessions addressing critical industry priorities, including:

• Artificial Intelligence and Agentic AI: Exploring decision intelligence, AI-powered operations, and the implementation of intelligent supply chain systems.
• Geopolitics and Global Trade: Examining tariffs, trade uncertainty, and their implications for international logistics networks.
• Planning and Risk Management: Improving forecasting, scenario modeling, supplier diversification, and operational resilience.
• Automation and Robotics: Assessing warehouse automation, physical AI, robotics, and productivity improvements.
• Transportation and Fulfillment: Addressing freight infrastructure, warehousing, last-mile delivery, and distribution network optimization.
• Sustainability and Reverse Logistics: Exploring circular supply chains, environmental responsibility, and more efficient returns management.
• Manufacturing and Nearshoring: Evaluating network design, regional production strategies, and evolving sourcing models.
• Investment and Innovation: Highlighting emerging technologies, strategic partnerships, and opportunities for scaling supply chain solutions.

Additional discussions will cover working capital management, cold chain logistics, healthcare supply chains, workforce development, and supply chain visibility platforms.

AI Infrastructure Highlights the Importance of Supply Chain Resilience

One of the central themes of Manifest Vegas 2027 will be the relationship between AI infrastructure development and the supply chains required to support it.

Paul Peterson, Vice President of HPC Operations at Keel Infrastructure, emphasized the importance of coordinating infrastructure, equipment, energy availability, and community engagement to support the expansion of AI technologies.

"AI infrastructure only gets built when the power, equipment and the community are all ready, and that takes a supply chain that treats all three as essential. I'm looking forward to my first Manifest Vegas and to seeing where innovation and funding go as AI bottlenecks take center stage. At Keel Infrastructure we build for permanence, which means doing right by the communities that host us," Peterson stated.

His remarks highlight the increasingly interconnected nature of technology infrastructure and supply chain management, particularly as demand for advanced computing capabilities accelerates.

Connecting Supply Chain Leaders and Technology Innovators

Manifest Vegas positions itself as a global meeting point for the supply chain and logistics technology ecosystem.

By bringing together established enterprises, logistics service providers, technology companies, startups, and venture capital investors, the event aims to facilitate collaboration and accelerate the adoption of solutions addressing operational challenges.

The participation of 80 startup CEOs alongside senior supply chain executives is expected to create opportunities for partnerships, investment discussions, and the exchange of practical insights into emerging technologies.

For businesses operating in cross-border commerce, fulfillment, and international logistics, the conference will provide a platform to examine how evolving trade policies, intelligent automation, and supply chain diversification are reshaping global distribution networks.

Manifest Vegas 2027: Event Details

Manifest Vegas 2027 will take place from February 8–10, 2027, at The Venetian in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Additional speakers and sessions are expected to be announced ahead of the event.

The initial agenda and registration information are available through the official website: https://manifestvegas.com/

About Manifest Vegas

Manifest Vegas is an international supply chain and logistics technology event that brings together supply chain executives, logistics service providers, emerging technology companies, venture investors, and industry innovators.

The event focuses on identifying new technologies, developing strategic partnerships, and exploring solutions transforming the movement of goods across global supply chains.

Source: Manifest Vegas, press announcement dated October 15, 2026.

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Azoma, a London- and Toronto-based technology company specializing in Agentic Commerce Optimization (ACO), has secured $11.2 million in Series A funding to expand its artificial intelligence platform and help global consumer brands improve product visibility across AI-powered shopping assistants.

The investment, announced on October 21, 2026, was led by Puma Growth Partners, with participation from dunnhumby, Twin Path, MaRS IAF, Rank Ventures and Ignite Ventures, alongside angel investors.

The funding comes as artificial intelligence increasingly influences how consumers discover, compare and purchase products online, creating new challenges for traditional e-commerce marketing strategies.

Azoma Secures $11.2 Million to Accelerate Agentic Commerce

Founded in 2022 by former Amazon executive Max Sinclair and machine learning researcher Timur Luguev, Azoma develops technology designed to help brands understand how AI shopping agents discover and recommend their products.

Unlike traditional search engine optimization, which focuses on improving website rankings in search results, Agentic Commerce Optimization aims to ensure that products are accurately represented and recommended by AI-powered platforms.

These include conversational AI applications such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini, alongside shopping assistants integrated into retail platforms, including Amazon's Alexa for Shopping and Walmart Sparky.

Azoma's platform combines AI visibility measurement, product content optimization and performance analysis to help businesses adapt to this emerging commercial environment.

The company reported that its revenue increased almost tenfold over the previous year, while its workforce expanded from 12 to 40 employees across London and Toronto.

Its enterprise customers include L'Oréal, Unilever, Mars, Beiersdorf and Reckitt.

The latest financing follows a $4 million seed round announced in December 2025 and an investment from dunnhumby ventures disclosed in September 2026.

How Azoma Plans to Use the New Investment

The $11.2 million financing will support three principal areas of development: expanding compatibility with AI shopping agents, strengthening product optimization and attribution capabilities, and recruiting additional artificial intelligence specialists.

A central priority will be extending Azoma's technology beyond conventional conversational search platforms to AI assistants capable of carrying out purchasing activities on behalf of consumers.

The company is also developing tools that connect product visibility within AI-generated recommendations to measurable commercial outcomes.

By leveraging dunnhumby's retail data capabilities, Azoma aims to improve its understanding of the relationship between AI-powered product discovery and subsequent sales.

Another component of Azoma's technology is its Digital Twin system, which simulates different AI shopper personas. This enables brands to assess how their products may be presented to shoppers with different purchasing preferences and requirements.

The company is also positioning its platform around emerging commerce interoperability frameworks, including the Universal Commerce Protocol and Agentic Commerce Protocol, which aim to facilitate interactions between AI agents and commercial systems.

Why AI Shopping Agents Are Changing E-commerce Marketing

The expansion of AI-powered shopping assistants represents a significant transformation in how online retailers compete for consumer attention.

Traditionally, e-commerce companies have relied on search engine rankings, sponsored product placements, marketplace advertising and product listing optimization to attract customers.

However, AI shopping agents are increasingly becoming intermediaries between consumers and retailers.

Instead of browsing multiple websites and manually comparing products, consumers can ask an AI assistant to identify suitable options based on price, specifications, availability, delivery conditions or personal preferences.

This introduces a new competitive challenge: products must not only be visible to human shoppers but also accessible, understandable and relevant to the AI systems generating recommendations.

According to Azoma, different AI systems rely on substantially different information sources when generating answers.

The company's analysis of 38 million citations found that editorial content represented 51.9% of citations within Google Gemini but only 7.6% within Google AI Overviews.

Meanwhile, affiliate content accounted for 39.6% of citations generated by Alexa for Shopping, compared with less than 2% across the other engines examined.

These findings suggest that brands cannot assume a single optimization strategy will deliver consistent visibility across every AI shopping platform.

The Five Principles of Agentic Commerce Optimization

To address these challenges, Azoma collaborated with the Digital Shelf Institute to develop a framework structured around five principles of Agentic Commerce Optimization.

Known as the Five C's, the framework focuses on completeness, context, citations, correctness and customer acquisition.

These principles aim to ensure that AI systems have access to detailed product information, understand the relevance of products to specific purchasing needs, reference reliable external information and provide accurate recommendations that can ultimately translate into commercial results.

According to Azoma, the framework is being deployed by 40% of the world's 50 largest consumer packaged goods companies, reflecting growing interest among multinational brands in managing product visibility within AI-driven commerce environments.

Agentic Commerce Could Reshape Global Retail by 2030

The investment in Azoma reflects broader expectations surrounding the economic potential of agentic commerce.

Research projections cited by the company from McKinsey suggest that AI-powered commerce agents could orchestrate between $3 trillion and $5 trillion in global retail revenue by 2030, including as much as $1 trillion in the United States.

Although these figures represent projections rather than realized transaction volumes, they illustrate the potential scale of a market in which artificial intelligence systems increasingly participate in purchasing decisions.

For retailers and consumer brands, the implications extend beyond marketing.

As AI agents become more involved in purchasing processes, businesses may need to reconsider how they structure product catalogs, maintain inventory information, communicate delivery options and distribute product data across external platforms.

For cross-border e-commerce businesses, this evolution could create opportunities to improve product discovery across languages and national boundaries, provided AI assistants can reliably interpret regional availability, pricing and fulfilment conditions.

What Azoma's Funding Means for the Future of E-commerce

Azoma's latest funding round highlights increasing investor interest in the infrastructure required to support AI-driven purchasing experiences.

While conventional e-commerce technology has historically focused on storefronts, payments, logistics and marketplace integrations, agentic commerce is creating demand for platforms that help businesses remain competitive within AI-generated recommendations.

This transition could prove particularly relevant for multinational consumer brands managing thousands of products across different retailers, marketplaces and geographic regions.

Nevertheless, the commercial impact of agentic commerce will depend on consumer adoption, the reliability of autonomous purchasing technologies and the ability of retailers to connect AI interactions with completed transactions.

With $11.2 million in additional financing, Azoma is positioning itself within an emerging segment of e-commerce technology where product visibility may increasingly depend not only on search rankings but also on how effectively AI agents understand, evaluate and recommend products.

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Industrial automation specialist KUKA Group has expanded access to its autonomous mobile robot portfolio through a distribution agreement with technology distributor TD SYNNEX, targeting businesses across Europe and North America. The partnership initially covers the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Benelux and the United States, with additional markets expected to follow in the coming quarters.

The agreement aims to make advanced robotics and automation technologies more accessible to companies in logistics, e-commerce, manufacturing, and other industries. By combining KUKA's industrial automation expertise with TD SYNNEX's established technology distribution network, the companies aim to accelerate the adoption of autonomous mobile robots and artificial intelligence in physical operating environments.

The initiative also reflects a broader transformation in warehouse automation, as businesses increasingly explore robotics to improve internal transportation, operational efficiency and the scalability of fulfillment operations.

KUKA and TD SYNNEX expand autonomous mobile robot distribution

Under the agreement, TD SYNNEX's distribution partners will gain access to KUKA Group's autonomous mobile robot (AMR) portfolio, supported by technical training, commercial assistance and business development resources.

The initial rollout covers several major European markets, including the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, alongside the United States. The companies plan additional geographic expansion in the coming quarters, although they have not disclosed a detailed timetable or identified all future markets.

The partnership initially focuses on autonomous mobile robots, with collaborative robots, educational solutions, and industrial software expected to join the distribution offering as the relationship develops. TD SYNNEX will also provide technical workshops, training programs, and demand-generation support to help its partners build the expertise needed to sell and implement robotics solutions.

For KUKA, the agreement represents an opportunity to reach businesses beyond its traditional industrial automation customer base. For TD SYNNEX, it marks an expansion into a technology segment increasingly connected to artificial intelligence, cloud computing and enterprise digital transformation.

Autonomous mobile robots gain importance in e-commerce fulfillment

Autonomous mobile robots transport goods and materials through warehouses, distribution centers, and other industrial facilities without requiring continuous manual control. Unlike traditional automated guided vehicles, which often rely on fixed routes or physical guidance systems, AMRs typically use sensors, mapping technologies, and navigation software to navigate changing environments.

In e-commerce fulfillment centers, these systems can support several operational activities, including transporting inventory between storage locations, delivering goods to picking stations, and moving completed orders toward packing or dispatch areas. Their potential value is especially relevant to facilities that handle large volumes of orders with varying product characteristics and delivery requirements.

As online retailers expand their product selections and seek faster delivery times, fulfillment operations must manage increasingly complex internal material flows. Autonomous mobile robots can reduce the time employees spend transporting merchandise between warehouse areas, allowing personnel to focus on picking, packing, quality control, and other activities.

However, the benefits depend on warehouse layout, operational processes, integration capabilities, and the suitability of individual robotic systems. The KUKA–TD SYNNEX agreement does not include published performance figures demonstrating specific productivity improvements for e-commerce customers. Nevertheless, the broader availability of these technologies could help logistics providers and retailers evaluate automation projects through a larger network of technology partners.

Bringing robotics into traditional IT distribution channels

One of the agreement's most significant aspects is the decision to distribute industrial robotics through an established information technology channel. Historically, specialized operational technology providers, system integrators, and engineering companies have supplied robotics and industrial automation.

These businesses typically possess expertise in industrial machinery, production systems and physical automation infrastructure. Traditional IT distributors, by contrast, focus on products and services such as enterprise computing, networking, cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, and software.

TD SYNNEX intends to connect these two markets by introducing robotics solutions to partners already serving businesses in logistics, e-commerce, healthcare, manufacturing and automotive industries. This approach could expand the number of companies that can identify automation opportunities and support customers interested in adopting robotics.

It may also encourage closer integration between warehouse automation and existing enterprise technology infrastructure. For example, a logistics company considering autonomous mobile robots may also require wireless connectivity, edge computing, data management systems, and integration with warehouse management software. Providing access to these complementary technologies through established distribution relationships could simplify certain aspects of project development.

However, deploying warehouse robotics still requires specialist engineering, operational assessment and appropriate integration capabilities. The distribution agreement should therefore be understood as an expansion of market access rather than a replacement for specialized robotics expertise.

Physical AI becomes a strategic priority

The partnership also places considerable emphasis on the emerging concept of Physical AI. While conventional artificial intelligence applications primarily analyze information, generate content or automate digital processes, Physical AI involves systems capable of interpreting and interacting with real-world environments.

Robotics represents one of the principal applications of this approach. Autonomous mobile robots combine physical equipment with navigation software, sensors and computational systems that allow them to operate within warehouses and industrial facilities. More advanced implementations may incorporate AI technologies to support navigation, task coordination, obstacle avoidance and adaptation to changing operating conditions.

KUKA and TD SYNNEX believe combining robotics with cloud infrastructure, edge computing, and enterprise data systems could help businesses deploy smarter automation solutions. Christoph Schell, CEO of KUKA Group, emphasized that expanding AI into physical environments creates opportunities to improve productivity, operational resilience, and competitiveness.

Companies also see an opportunity to bridge the traditional divide between information technology and operational technology. For logistics providers, this convergence could become increasingly important as warehouse equipment, software platforms and business systems become more interconnected. Rather than operating as isolated machines, robotic systems may increasingly become part of integrated fulfillment environments that coordinate information and physical operations.

Training and technical support will accompany the rollout

The agreement includes a structured program designed to help TD SYNNEX partners develop robotics capabilities. Partner engagement has begun across the initial launch markets, including executive briefings, technical workshops, and digital training initiatives.

KUKA will provide product and technical education through its KUKA Colleges, including training sessions in local languages. PartnerFirst will also provide additional resources through TD SYNNEX's digital partner development platform.

The training component matters because industrial robotics requires expertise beyond conventional IT product distribution. Partners may need to understand operational safety, navigation systems, warehouse workflows, software integration, and the technical requirements of different industrial environments. For companies adopting automation, access to knowledgeable implementation partners can be as important as access to the robotic equipment itself.

By investing in training and technical support, the two companies aim to build a broader ecosystem that can support robotics projects across industries. The agreement also creates potential business opportunities for technology resellers seeking to diversify beyond traditional computing and networking solutions.

What the expansion means for European logistics providers

The initial inclusion of the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Benelux makes the agreement particularly relevant to European warehouse operators and fulfillment companies. These markets contain major logistics hubs, distribution networks and e-commerce fulfillment operations serving both domestic and international customers.

As retailers pursue faster delivery and more flexible inventory distribution, warehouse operators face pressure to improve productivity while keeping operating costs under control. Automation can address certain challenges, particularly repetitive internal transportation tasks and moving goods between warehouse zones.

However, technology availability alone does not determine adoption. Businesses must evaluate implementation costs, operational disruption, maintenance requirements, integration with existing systems, and the expected return on investment. Smaller fulfillment operators may also face different constraints from large distribution centers with substantial automation budgets.

The expansion of robotics distribution channels could make it easier for a wider range of companies to explore available solutions, although the partnership does not guarantee lower equipment prices or faster implementation. For cross-border logistics providers, warehouse automation may also support more consistent order processing across regional fulfillment networks. This could become increasingly valuable as international retailers seek to distribute inventory closer to European consumers and improve delivery performance.

Warehouse automation enters a new distribution phase

The agreement between KUKA Group and TD SYNNEX illustrates how industrial robotics is moving closer to the broader enterprise technology market. By making autonomous mobile robots available through established IT distribution channels, the companies aim to expand access to automation while developing the technical expertise required for implementation.

The initiative initially targets Europe and North America, with additional geographic markets and product categories expected to follow. For e-commerce businesses and fulfillment providers, the development creates another potential route to warehouse automation technologies that can support internal transportation and material handling.

The partnership also reflects the growing convergence between artificial intelligence, industrial equipment and enterprise digital infrastructure. However, the commercial impact will depend on how successfully distribution partners develop the necessary technical capabilities and whether customers can demonstrate measurable operational benefits.

As warehouse operations become increasingly connected and automated, partnerships linking industrial robotics manufacturers with established technology distributors could play a growing role in bringing advanced automation solutions to a broader range of businesses.

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India's e-commerce market generated an estimated $2.5 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) during the opening two days of its 2026 festive shopping season, as major marketplaces including Amazon, Flipkart and Meesho reported exceptional consumer activity. According to Redseer Strategy Consultants, between 60 million and 65 million consumers placed about 80 million to 90 million orders on October 8 and 9, underscoring the growing scale of one of the world's most dynamic digital retail markets.

Total sales reached about ₹24,000 crore, roughly six times the normal daily GMV. However, the most significant development concerns the changing geographical distribution of online shoppers. About two-thirds of participating consumers came from smaller cities and rural markets, while first-time online shoppers doubled compared with the previous year. The figures suggest that India's e-commerce expansion is increasingly extending beyond its largest metropolitan areas, supported by affordable products, flexible payment options and improving fulfillment infrastructure.

Amazon, Flipkart and Meesho report record festive shopping activity

Amazon's Great Indian Festival 2026 recorded more than 440 million visits during its opening phase, with over 72% originating outside India's nine largest metropolitan areas. The company also reported that the number of products ordered more than doubled year over year during the first 12 hours. Smartphones, electronics, fashion, beauty products and household essentials were among the most popular categories, reflecting the growing diversification of online purchasing.

Payment flexibility played an important role in Amazon's performance. About half of participating customers used equated monthly installment (EMI) plans, while one-third of purchased units benefited from cashback incentives. The company also highlighted the growing importance of Amazon Now, its rapid-delivery service, as consumers increasingly expect shorter fulfillment times alongside competitive prices.

Flipkart reported approximately 6.3 million concurrent users during the opening hour of its Big Billion Days event, with around 60% of demand coming from non-metropolitan markets. Its quick-commerce service, Flipkart Minutes, also saw a significant rise in orders, showing that rapid delivery is becoming an increasingly important competitive factor in Indian retail.

Meanwhile, Meesho reported a 75% year-over-year increase in orders on the first day of its Mega Blockbuster Sale, along with about 60% growth in transacting customers. Its performance reflects the continued expansion of value-oriented e-commerce, particularly among consumers in smaller towns and cities seeking affordable merchandise.

These figures are company-reported results covering different measurement periods and should not be interpreted as directly comparable market shares.

Smaller cities and first-time shoppers drive e-commerce growth

One of Redseer's most important findings is that about two-thirds of festive shoppers came from outside India's largest metropolitan areas. Expanding smartphone access, digital payments, and logistics networks are making online shopping increasingly accessible to consumers in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, smaller towns, and rural communities.

The number of first-time online shoppers doubled compared with the previous year's festive season, suggesting that promotional events are attracting new consumers rather than merely increasing purchases among existing customers. Younger shoppers are also becoming increasingly influential, with Generation Z representing about one-third of participants on opening day.

For international brands and marketplaces, these developments reinforce the importance of localized strategies that consider regional purchasing power, product preferences, payment methods and delivery infrastructure. Reaching India's next generation of online consumers will increasingly depend on serving markets beyond traditional metropolitan retail centers.

Smartphones and electronics dominate transaction value

Smartphones accounted for approximately 38% to 40% of total GMV during the opening two days, representing an estimated ₹9,100 crore to ₹9,600 crore in sales. Consumer electronics and large appliances contributed another 25% to 27%, while fashion accounted for about 15% to 18% of transaction value.

Demand for televisions, refrigerators, air conditioners, and laptops was particularly strong, supported by promotional discounts, installment payments, and seasonal purchasing patterns. The popularity of larger televisions and other bulky products also highlights the importance of specialized fulfillment capabilities, particularly as online retail expands into smaller markets.

Fashion GMV rose 22% to 25% year over year, with affordable festive clothing driving strong demand. Products priced below ₹500 performed particularly well, underscoring the importance of accessible pricing for consumers new to online retail.

Quick commerce emerges as a major competitive factor

Rapid-delivery platforms generated approximately four to five times their normal daily GMV during the opening two days, according to Redseer. An estimated 14 million to 15 million consumers participated in quick commerce, illustrating the growing importance of convenience and delivery speed in India's digital retail ecosystem.

Originally focused on groceries and everyday essentials, quick commerce is increasingly expanding into electronics accessories, personal care, household products, and other categories suitable for rapid fulfillment. Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes reflect established marketplaces' growing interest in this model.

However, quick commerce requires a different logistics structure from conventional e-commerce. Maintaining inventory close to consumers depends on dense networks of local fulfillment facilities, accurate demand forecasting, and sufficient order volumes to support short delivery routes. Expanding these capabilities beyond densely populated urban markets will remain a significant operational challenge.

India's e-commerce expansion creates new logistics opportunities

India's online retail market is diversifying geographically, driving growing demand for regional warehousing, transportation networks, and last-mile delivery services. Serving consumers across smaller cities and rural communities requires more extensive distribution infrastructure than traditional metropolitan-focused fulfillment models.

For marketplaces and third-party logistics providers, the challenge is to balance delivery speed, inventory availability, and operating costs. High-volume promotional events intensify these pressures by concentrating millions of orders into a relatively short period, increasing demand for warehouse processing capacity, transportation, and customer support.

International brands entering India must also consider domestic distribution, customs requirements, local consumer preferences, and the economics of reaching customers across different regions. Competitive pricing remains essential, but reliable fulfillment and flexible payment options are becoming equally important components of the purchasing experience.

A new phase for India's digital retail market

India's estimated $2.5 billion in festive e-commerce sales during just two days demonstrates the scale and growing maturity of its online retail sector. Up to 65 million shoppers, combined with strong demand for smartphones, electronics, fashion, and quick commerce, highlights the market's growing diversity.

More importantly, the expansion beyond major metropolitan areas suggests that India's next phase of e-commerce growth will depend heavily on smaller cities, new digital consumers and the infrastructure required to serve them. Amazon, Flipkart and Meesho are competing through different combinations of pricing, product selection, financing and fulfillment capabilities, while Redseer forecasts that approximately 100 million consumers could participate during the first 11-day phase of the festive shopping season.

For the global e-commerce industry, India's performance offers a clear example of how digital retail growth is increasingly driven by broader consumer participation, localized commerce strategies and the continued development of efficient fulfillment networks.

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Global container shipping volumes hit a record 17.46 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August 2026, underscoring the resilience of international trade despite geopolitical instability, rising fuel costs, and mounting pressure on global supply chains. However, the latest figures from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) reveal a more challenging development for international retailers and cross-border businesses: global freight prices rose 44% from August 2025, reaching their highest level in more than two years.

According to the CTS report published on October 8, container volumes increased 3.7% year over year in August, surpassing the previous monthly record established in July. Cumulative global volumes for the first eight months of 2026 were 4.7% higher than during the corresponding period in 2025, confirming that international merchandise flows remain remarkably strong despite widespread uncertainty surrounding trade policies and maritime transportation.

Record container traffic and sharply higher shipping prices are creating a growing challenge for global e-commerce. While demand for international transportation remains resilient, businesses importing products from overseas manufacturing centers face increasing pressure on logistics budgets, inventory management and profitability. For retailers, marketplaces, and fulfillment providers, the latest data suggests the final quarter of 2026 could see sustained trade activity alongside elevated transportation costs.

Global container shipping reaches another historic milestone

The latest CTS figures establish August 2026 as the busiest month for containerized trade in the organization's database, with global liftings reaching 17.46 million TEUs. The result exceeds the previous record of approximately 17.3 million TEUs registered in July, continuing a period of exceptionally strong activity across international shipping networks.

The longer-term comparison illustrates the scale of the expansion. August volumes were 3.7% higher than August 2025, 7.2% higher than August 2024, and 12.9% higher than the corresponding month in 2023. These figures show that global container trade has continued to grow despite repeated disruptions to maritime routes, changes in international trade policy, and higher operating costs.

This performance is particularly notable given the difficult conditions that affected the shipping industry throughout 2026. Elevated fuel prices, security concerns in the Arabian Gulf, constraints affecting the Panama Canal and evolving tariff arrangements have complicated transportation planning for carriers and cargo owners. Nevertheless, global shipping volumes have continued to reach new highs, suggesting international supply chains are adapting to these challenges rather than broadly contracting.

However, record volumes do not necessarily indicate that the industry is entering a period of accelerating growth. CTS has warned that the pace of month-to-month expansion is beginning to moderate, raising questions about whether the current momentum can continue through the final months of the year.

Freight prices climb 44% as shipping disruptions intensify

While container volumes are setting records, freight pricing is also rising sharply. The CTS Global Price Index reached 117 points in August, up from 115 in July, its highest level since July 2024, when Red Sea disruptions exerted substantial pressure on maritime transportation.

The index has risen approximately 50% since January 2026 and stands 44% above its August 2025 level. The increase reflects a substantial deterioration in the cost environment for businesses relying on international container shipping, although actual freight rates vary considerably depending on the route, contract structure, shipping service and cargo characteristics.

Shipping prices have risen alongside disruptions affecting major international maritime corridors. Security concerns and operational difficulties can force shipping companies to adjust routes, extend transit times or allocate additional capacity to maintain service schedules. These adjustments reduce the effective availability of shipping capacity and increase operating expenses, even when the global fleet size remains unchanged.

Higher fuel costs create another layer of pressure. As energy prices rise, carriers face higher operating costs and may introduce or adjust fuel-related surcharges. These transportation costs can affect businesses across the supply chain, from manufacturers and wholesalers to retailers and direct-to-consumer brands.

For cross-border e-commerce companies, the problem extends beyond the headline freight rate. Higher maritime transportation costs contribute to the total landed cost of imported goods, potentially affecting retail pricing, promotional margins and decisions about where inventory should be stored.

Asian exports drive global container trade growth

The Far East remains the principal engine of expansion in global container shipping. According to CTS, exports originating in the region rose 8% in the first eight months of 2026 versus the same period in 2025, adding about 6.3 million TEUs.

Every major destination region recorded growth in containerized cargo originating from the Far East, with Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Central America leading in percentage terms. The figures reinforce Asia's central position within international manufacturing and distribution networks, even as businesses increasingly discuss diversifying their sourcing strategies.

For global e-commerce, the continued strength of Asian exports matters most. China and other Asian manufacturing economies remain important suppliers of consumer electronics, fashion, household products, accessories, and numerous other categories sold through international marketplaces and online retail channels.

The growth in containerized exports also highlights an important distinction between different forms of cross-border commerce. While changes to customs regulations and import duties can alter the economics of individual low-value parcels shipped directly to consumers, larger consolidated shipments continue playing a central role in international retail supply chains.

Many merchants import goods in bulk before distributing them through domestic warehouses, third-party logistics providers or marketplace fulfillment networks. Strong Asian export volumes reflect the continued importance of these inventory-based distribution models, although CTS does not separately identify the proportion of shipments attributable to e-commerce.

North American imports recover despite tariff uncertainty

North American container imports have also shown signs of recovery following a difficult start to 2026. CTS reports that imports into the region rose 2% in the first eight months of the year versus the same period in 2025, reversing the negative year-to-date growth recorded earlier.

Stronger cargo flows from the Far East have supported the recovery. Trans-Pacific trade volumes increased 5% year-to-date, reflecting renewed activity along one of the world's most important shipping corridors.

The improvement is particularly notable given the uncertainty surrounding international tariffs and trade relations. Changes in import duties, customs procedures, and commercial restrictions can affect when businesses place orders, how much inventory they buy, and which countries they choose for manufacturing or distribution.

For retailers importing merchandise into the United States, shipping decisions are closely connected to inventory planning and consumer demand. Companies must balance the cost of maintaining stock against the risk of shortages, delayed deliveries or unexpected changes in import expenses.

However, the recovery should not be interpreted as evidence that every North American port or trade route is experiencing equivalent growth. Separate figures released by the National Retail Federation on October 8 showed that the major US container ports included in its Global Port Tracker handled approximately 2.3 million TEUs in August, down 0.7% year over year. The difference reflects the distinct geographical coverage and methodologies of the two datasets.

The broader picture is therefore one of recovering regional container trade, rather than uniformly accelerating imports across every port and shipping service.

Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a major growth market

One of the CTS report's most significant regional developments is Sub-Saharan Africa, where container imports rose 13% in the first eight months of 2026. This is the strongest percentage growth among the regions analyzed and highlights the growing importance of African markets in international merchandise flows.

Trade with multiple origin regions, particularly the Far East, supports the expansion. Growing container volumes suggest increasing commercial activity and stronger connections between African import markets and international manufacturing centers.

For cross-border retailers and logistics providers, the trend could have important long-term implications. As international trade volumes expand, demand may rise for freight forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing, inland transportation, and distribution services that connect imported merchandise with domestic consumers and businesses.

However, rising container imports should not automatically be interpreted as equivalent growth in online retail sales. Container traffic includes industrial materials, machinery, intermediate goods, and other products that extend far beyond consumer e-commerce.

Nevertheless, the expansion demonstrates how international supply chains are evolving beyond their traditional concentration on North American and European destination markets. Businesses developing international distribution strategies may increasingly need to consider emerging trade corridors and the infrastructure required to support them.

Middle East disruptions create a sharp regional contraction

Not every region is benefiting from the expansion in global container trade. The combined Indian Sub-Continent and Middle East region was the only major region in the CTS report to register declines in both imports and exports during the first eight months of 2026.

Imports fell 5% from the corresponding period in 2025, while exports fell 10%. The reduction in outbound volumes was just under one million TEUs, underscoring the scale of the disruption affecting regional trade.

The decline is particularly significant because the region occupies a strategically important position within international maritime transportation. Shipping routes connecting Asia, Europe and the Middle East are closely linked to major energy markets, manufacturing centers and international distribution networks.

Disruptions affecting these corridors can have consequences far beyond the countries directly involved. Changes in vessel routing, port accessibility and transportation schedules can influence capacity availability across other shipping lanes, contributing to congestion and higher operating costs.

This helps explain why global freight prices can rise even while overall shipping volumes remain strong. Maritime transportation operates as an interconnected network, so capacity restrictions in one region can affect commercial conditions elsewhere.

For international merchants, the consequences may include longer transit times, less predictable delivery schedules and additional costs associated with rerouting or alternative transportation arrangements.

European exports stabilize as international trade patterns shift

Europe's export performance has also improved, although growth remains considerably weaker than in the Far East. According to CTS, European container exports returned to approximately flat year-to-date growth in August after declining in earlier months of 2026.

The stabilization reflects steady or improving cargo flows across most destination regions. Although zero growth may seem modest compared with expansion elsewhere, it still represents an improvement for European exporters operating in a challenging international trade environment.

Earlier CTS figures also indicated strong demand for imports from Europe. In its July report, the organization recorded 6.1% year-to-date growth in European imports, supported in part by about 1.5 million additional TEUs originating in the Far East.

The contrast between stronger imports and relatively subdued exports highlights the continuing importance of Asian manufacturing within European supply chains. It also illustrates the challenges European exporters face as they try to expand international sales amid rising transportation costs and changing trade conditions.

For European e-commerce businesses, these developments reinforce the importance of logistics planning. Companies importing products from Asia must account for higher freight costs, while those exporting to international customers must maintain competitive delivered prices.

This is especially relevant for businesses operating across multiple European marketplaces, where they can distribute inventory through regional fulfillment centers to reduce delivery times and improve service reliability.

What record shipping volumes mean for cross-border e-commerce

The latest container shipping data has important implications for online retailers, particularly those relying on imported inventory. Although global container traffic doesn't directly measure e-commerce activity, maritime transportation remains a critical part of the supply chains supporting international online sales.

A large proportion of merchandise sold through marketplaces such as Amazon, Walmart, AliExpress and other retail platforms reaches its destination market through conventional freight networks before entering domestic fulfillment and parcel delivery systems. Rising ocean freight costs can therefore affect the economics of online retail long before someone places an order.

For businesses importing consumer goods, higher transportation expenses increase inventory acquisition costs. Depending on product margins and competitive conditions, merchants may absorb part of the increase, negotiate with suppliers, adjust selling prices or reduce promotional discounts.

The effect can be particularly significant for low-margin products, bulky merchandise and categories where transportation represents a substantial share of the final landed cost. Businesses selling high-value, lightweight products may experience a different cost impact, depending on their shipping arrangements and sourcing locations.

Freight volatility also complicates inventory planning. Retailers must determine how much stock to order, when shipments should depart and whether additional inventory should be held closer to customers to reduce exposure to unexpected transportation delays.

These decisions become especially important ahead of major shopping periods, when product availability and delivery reliability can directly influence conversion rates and customer satisfaction.

Rising logistics costs strengthen the case for regional fulfillment

One potential consequence of sustained freight volatility is a greater emphasis on regional inventory management and fulfillment. Rather than relying on frequent international replenishment, retailers may consolidate larger shipments and distribute inventory through warehouses closer to their main consumer markets.

This approach can provide several advantages. Regional fulfillment facilities let merchants serve domestic and neighboring markets with shorter delivery times, reduce reliance on individual international shipments, and manage returns through local logistics networks.

However, regional warehousing introduces additional costs, including storage, inventory financing, labor, customs administration and operational management. The optimal model depends on sales volumes, product characteristics, demand predictability, and customers' geographic distribution.

Higher ocean freight prices do not automatically make local fulfillment cheaper for every merchant. Instead, it strengthens the need for detailed landed-cost calculations that consider transportation, inventory holding costs, customs requirements, and last-mile delivery expenses together.

For third-party logistics providers, this environment may create opportunities to offer more integrated services that combine international freight forwarding, customs clearance, inventory management, and domestic order fulfillment. As cross-border commerce becomes increasingly complex, merchants may place greater value on logistics partners that can manage the full movement of goods from manufacturing locations to final consumers.

Shipping companies and logistics providers face different economic pressures

The increase in freight prices also have different implications for businesses in the transportation industry. Ocean carriers can benefit directly from higher shipping rates, particularly when demand remains strong and capacity is constrained. Freight forwarders, however, operate under a different commercial model. These companies coordinate transportation and logistics services for customers, meaning that rising carrier rates do not necessarily translate into equivalent increases in profitability.

According to Reuters reporting published on October 6, European shipping and logistics companies are expected to benefit from resilient international trade and elevated freight prices, although the effects vary across different segments of the industry.

Carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are more directly exposed to ocean freight pricing, while logistics providers including DSV, DHL and Kuehne+Nagel may benefit from demand for additional services such as customs clearance, warehousing and complex supply-chain management. For e-commerce merchants, the distinction matters because ocean transportation is only one component of the overall logistics bill. Customs brokerage, port handling, inland transportation, storage and final-mile distribution can all contribute to the total cost of bringing products to market.

Businesses seeking to control logistics expenses therefore need to evaluate the complete supply chain rather than focusing exclusively on container freight rates.

Peak-season inventory planning becomes more complicated

The latest CTS figures arrive as retailers prepare for the final quarter of 2026, traditionally one of the most important periods for consumer spending and e-commerce activity. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Christmas shopping season create significant demand for inventory, fulfillment capacity, and reliable transportation.

However, recent US port data suggests that the peak import season may already be moving past its busiest period. The National Retail Federation reported on October 8 that the extended US retail shipping peak appears to be winding down following sustained activity throughout the summer and early autumn.

According to the NRF, most holiday merchandise has already arrived, with remaining shipments increasingly focused on replenishment and preparation for early 2027. Its Global Port Tracker projects that US import volumes at the ports it covers will reach about 25.8 million TEUs for the full year, up 1.4% from 2025. These figures provide an important qualification to the global CTS data. Record worldwide shipping volumes do not necessarily mean retail imports will keep accelerating through the final quarter, particularly in markets where businesses have already brought forward seasonal inventory.

For merchants, the challenge is to manage existing stock efficiently while retaining sufficient flexibility to respond to unexpected changes in consumer demand. Higher freight prices make last-minute replenishment more expensive, while uncertain transit times can reduce the reliability of international restocking.

Retailers with accurate demand forecasts, diversified logistics arrangements and strategically positioned inventory may therefore be better equipped to navigate the current environment.

Could global freight prices remain elevated through 2027?

The central question facing the container shipping industry is whether strong volumes and high freight prices will persist. The CTS Global Price Index has risen sharply since the beginning of 2026, but future movements will depend on several interacting factors, including geopolitical developments, fuel prices, shipping capacity and global merchandise demand.

Fewer maritime disruptions could eventually return effective capacity to the market, potentially easing freight rates. Conversely, continued route restrictions, higher fuel costs, or renewed congestion could sustain pricing pressure even if container volume growth begins to moderate.

The pace of demand growth will also be important. CTS has already identified signs of slowing month-to-month momentum, suggesting that the market may be approaching a period of more moderate expansion after consecutive record months.

For retailers and importers, the prudent approach is not to assume freight prices will keep rising indefinitely or quickly return to earlier levels. Instead, businesses need to prepare for continued uncertainty and assess how different shipping-cost scenarios could affect their margins, inventory decisions and international expansion plans.

Recent years have shown that global supply chains can remain operational during major disruption, but resilience often comes at a considerable financial cost.

Global trade remains resilient, but the cost of resilience is rising

The latest Container Trades Statistics report presents a striking picture of the international shipping industry. Global container volumes reached a record 17.46 million TEUs in August 2026, while the Global Price Index climbed to 117 points, approximately 50% above its January level and 44% higher than a year earlier.

The figures show that international merchandise trade continues to expand despite geopolitical tensions, shifting tariff policies, and operational constraints affecting major shipping routes. Strong exports from the Far East, recovering North American imports and rapid growth in Sub-Saharan Africa are helping sustain global container traffic, even as disruptions in the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East weigh on regional performance.

For cross-border e-commerce, the implications extend beyond the shipping industry. Higher freight prices affect inventory acquisition costs, product pricing, warehouse strategies, and international merchants' competitiveness. They also reinforce the importance of efficient fulfillment networks and the ability to adapt quickly to changing transportation conditions.

The broader message is that global trade is not retreating amid disruption. Instead, businesses and logistics providers are finding ways to keep goods moving through an increasingly complicated international environment. The challenge for the remainder of 2026 and beyond will be determining how much that resilience costs, and which companies are best positioned to absorb or manage the resulting pressures.

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Dubai, UAE - DELIVER Middle East, the region’s premier invitation-only event Powering the Future of Retail Supply Chains, has officially kicked off the countdown to its 2027 edition by unveiling its first wave of senior retail and supply chain speakers.

The announcement marks the next phase in the build-up to the event, giving confirmed and prospective attendees an early look at the world-class conference programme ahead of the launch of DELIVER’s signature 1-2-1 matchmaking platform.

Taking place on 20+21 January 2027 in Dubai, DELIVER Middle East will bring together the region’s most influential retail, supply chain and logistics leaders in a curated, fully hosted environment designed to foster meaningful commercial connections and strategic partnerships.

The programme features senior decision makers from leading retailers and brands across the Middle East and beyond, alongside influential voices from logistics, technology and supply chain innovation. Delegates will benefit from an inspiring conference programme exploring unified commerce, cross-border logistics, AI, automation, fulfilment innovation and the technologies transforming retail supply chains across the region.

Stéphane Tomczak, Founder and Chairman of DELIVER, commented:

“DELIVER Middle East exists to connect the region’s most influential retail and supply chain decision makers in a highly focused and efficient way. Our curated 1-2-1 meetings are at the heart of the experience, enabling meaningful, pre-qualified connections that drive real commercial outcomes. Combined with a world-class conference programme, this is where partnerships are built and business gets done.”

The event’s curated 1-2-1 matchmaking format remains DELIVER’s core differentiator, allowing retailers and brands to meet with carefully selected solution providers based on their business priorities and strategic objectives. Every meeting is pre-arranged, relevant and commercially focused, ensuring a high-value experience for all participants.

Attendance is strictly limited to maintain the quality of networking and meetings, bringing together senior-level retail and supply chain leaders, including C-suite executives, directors and regional decision makers, alongside a carefully selected group of innovative technology and logistics partners.

As momentum builds ahead of January 2027, additional speaker announcements and programme highlights will be revealed, with qualified retailers and brands encouraged to secure their invitations early to gain priority access to the matchmaking process when it goes live.

For more information, visit: https://www.deliver.events/middle-east

The post DELIVER Middle East Sets the Stage for its 2027 Dubai Edition appeared first on Cross-Border Magazine.

Chinese low-value and e-commerce exports to the European Union fell by 65% year-on-year in August 2026, providing one of the clearest indications yet that Europe's new customs regime is fundamentally changing cross-border e-commerce flows. The decline follows the EU's introduction of a temporary €3 customs duty on low-value imports and comes after China-to-EU shipments had already fallen 54% year-on-year in July.

The figures, reported by The Loadstar and based on data from Trade and Transport Group, show how rapidly the economics of direct-to-consumer shipping from China are changing. For marketplaces and sellers that built their European operations around inexpensive individual parcels shipped directly from China, the removal of the EU's long-standing customs duty exemption for consignments below €150 has introduced a new cost into a business model heavily dependent on extremely low prices and enormous shipment volumes.

Chinese e-commerce shipments to Europe fall sharply

According to Trade and Transport Group managing director Frederic Horst, Chinese low-value and e-commerce exports to the EU dropped 65% year-on-year in August. The contraction accelerated from the already substantial 54% decline recorded in July, suggesting that the disruption is becoming more pronounced rather than representing a temporary adjustment immediately following the introduction of the new rules.

Separate data from Aevean points in the same direction. Its latest figures indicate that China's overall e-commerce exports fell approximately 16% year-on-year in August, the largest decline recorded so far. Europe was the main contributor to that contraction, with Chinese e-commerce exports to the region falling approximately 40%.

The discrepancy between the 40% and 65% figures reflects differences in datasets and measurement methodologies, but both show an exceptionally sharp deterioration in China-Europe e-commerce traffic. Other regions experienced much smaller reductions, while Africa was an important exception, with Chinese e-commerce exports reportedly increasing 71% from a comparatively small base.

The EU's €3 customs duty changes the economics of cheap parcels

The turning point came on 1 July 2026, when the European Union abolished the customs duty exemption previously available for consignments valued at €150 or less. A temporary flat customs duty of €3 now applies to qualifying low-value imported goods and is scheduled to remain in place until July 2028, when the EU expects its broader customs reform and Customs Data Hub to become operational.

Although frequently described as a €3 "parcel tax", the mechanism is more nuanced. The duty is calculated according to the different categories of goods contained within a shipment and their tariff classification. A parcel containing several products belonging to the same relevant category may therefore attract €3, while a shipment containing products falling under several different tariff classifications can generate multiple €3 charges.

For ultra-low-cost e-commerce, even a relatively small absolute charge can substantially change the economics of a transaction. The impact is particularly significant for products costing only a few euros, where customs costs represent a much larger percentage of the total purchase price. This directly challenges the economics that helped Chinese marketplaces build enormous European businesses around inexpensive products shipped individually to consumers.

Europe processed 5.9 billion low-value e-commerce items in 2025

The EU's decision follows years of extraordinary growth in direct e-commerce imports. According to the European Commission, approximately 5.9 billion low-value e-commerce items entered the European Union during 2025, around four times the volume recorded in 2022.

European authorities argued that the previous €150 customs exemption had become increasingly unsuitable for an e-commerce market handling billions of individual items. The Commission has also raised concerns about undervaluation, customs fraud, product safety and the competitive difference between European retailers importing merchandise commercially and overseas sellers sending products directly to individual customers.

The temporary €3 duty therefore represents only one component of a much broader overhaul of European customs rules. From November 2026, additional Product Identifier requirements are also scheduled to become mandatory for relevant import distance sales, giving customs authorities more information to identify products and detect potentially unsafe or non-compliant goods.

Temu, Shein and AliExpress face a changing European market

The change is particularly important for Chinese marketplaces such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress, whose international expansion has been closely associated with direct cross-border fulfillment. Trade and Transport Group previously estimated that China accounts for more than 80% of global cross-border e-commerce revenue, with Temu, Shein and AliExpress responsible for the overwhelming majority of Chinese e-commerce exports.

Direct fulfillment from China offered several advantages. Sellers could maintain centralized inventory, avoid duplicating stock across European markets and offer enormous product catalogues without placing every SKU in regional warehouses. Air freight and highly optimized parcel networks then connected Chinese suppliers directly with European consumers.

Europe's new customs environment weakens some of those advantages. The alternative is increasingly to move products into Europe in bulk, clear them through customs before individual orders are placed and fulfill purchases domestically or regionally. This does not eliminate customs costs, but it changes how those costs, inventory and compliance obligations are managed.

Chinese marketplaces could accelerate European warehousing

The decline in direct parcel traffic does not necessarily mean European demand for Chinese products will disappear. Instead, the regulatory changes could accelerate a transition already underway: moving inventory closer to European consumers.

Chinese marketplaces have increasingly experimented with local seller programs, European warehouses and hybrid fulfillment structures. Under this model, products can be imported in larger commercial shipments, stored within the EU and subsequently delivered as domestic or intra-European orders.

This would represent a fundamental change to the logistics architecture behind Chinese cross-border e-commerce. The competitive battleground would move partially away from ultra-cheap China-to-consumer parcel delivery toward inventory positioning, European fulfillment capacity, last-mile delivery and increasingly sophisticated demand forecasting.

For European fulfillment companies and logistics providers, that transition could create significant opportunities. Marketplace volumes that previously moved directly through airports and postal or parcel networks may increasingly require warehousing, pick-and-pack operations, returns processing and domestic delivery inside Europe.

European retailers are already reporting an impact

There are also early signs that European retailers may be benefiting from the changes. Polish fashion group LPP, owner of the Sinsay brand, has linked stronger online growth to the EU's new treatment of low-value imports. Sinsay's online sales reportedly began growing between 20% and 30% from mid-August, with the company pointing to the new import regime as one factor affecting competition from Chinese platforms.

Polish marketplace Allegro has similarly cited reduced competitive pressure from Chinese sellers among the factors supporting stronger domestic performance. The company recently increased its 2026 outlook, including raising its expected Polish gross merchandise value growth to between 11% and 13%.

The situation remains complex, however. Chinese marketplaces are unlikely to simply withdraw from Europe. Their scale, supplier networks, technology and ability to modify logistics models mean that the current decline in direct shipments could eventually be followed by a different type of expansion based on localized inventory and European fulfillment.

Air cargo could be one of the biggest losers

The consequences extend far beyond marketplaces and retailers. Cross-border e-commerce has become an important source of global air cargo demand, particularly on routes connecting China with Europe and North America.

Trade and Transport Group estimated earlier this year that cross-border e-commerce represented almost 18% of intercontinental air cargo traffic in 2025 despite accounting for only around 6% of global online sales. The disproportionate impact reflects the industry's reliance on air transport to deliver inexpensive Chinese products to international consumers within competitive delivery windows.

A sustained reduction in direct China-to-Europe parcel traffic could therefore affect freighter demand, airport volumes and airfreight capacity allocation. Major European cargo gateways that developed significant e-commerce operations over the past decade could be particularly exposed to changes in the direct parcel model.

The industry is already adapting. Senior executives from logistics companies including DSV and DHL have highlighted the need for greater flexibility as regulation, geopolitical disruptions and changing e-commerce patterns repeatedly alter global cargo flows. Rather than assuming that established gateways and routes will continue handling the same volumes, logistics companies are increasingly building networks capable of shifting capacity between markets.

The UK is proving more resilient

The European picture is also not uniform. Chinese e-commerce exports to the United Kingdom declined considerably less than shipments into the EU, according to Trade and Transport Group data.

Volumes to the UK fell approximately 13% year-on-year in August after declining only 5% in July. While still negative, the figures are substantially less dramatic than the 54% and 65% declines recorded for the European Union during the same months.

The divergence provides another indication that regulation is playing an important role in changing shipment patterns. The UK operates outside the EU customs system and is therefore not directly subject to the bloc's new €3 low-value import duty.

The US shows how quickly e-commerce flows can change

The United States provides another example of the ability of Chinese e-commerce networks to adapt to regulatory disruption. Direct low-value shipments from China to the US have reportedly been expanding again since May, although rolling 12-month volumes remain at only around 65% of the levels recorded before May 2025.

The pattern demonstrates how quickly cross-border e-commerce flows can be redirected or reorganized when governments change customs rules. Marketplaces can alter sourcing, consolidate shipments, move inventory into destination markets or develop alternative fulfillment structures.

Europe may now be entering a similar adjustment period.

What happens next to China-EU e-commerce?

The 65% decline in August should therefore not necessarily be interpreted as a 65% collapse in European consumer demand for Chinese products. It primarily measures a dramatic contraction in a particular cross-border logistics model: low-value products moving directly from China into the EU.

The distinction is critical. If Chinese marketplaces respond by moving more inventory into European warehouses, some of the lost direct airfreight volume could reappear as bulk freight, ocean shipments or alternative logistics flows. At the same time, local fulfillment would place Chinese marketplaces in more direct competition with European retailers on delivery speed, warehousing efficiency and returns management rather than primarily on cross-border parcel economics.

More regulatory changes are also approaching. The €3 duty is a transitional mechanism expected to operate until July 2028, after which the EU intends to apply normal customs tariffs through its reformed customs infrastructure. New product identification requirements and a planned handling fee will further increase the regulatory and operational requirements associated with selling low-value products into Europe.

A structural change in cross-border e-commerce

Two consecutive months of exceptionally steep declines provide the first substantial evidence that Europe's customs reforms are already influencing international e-commerce flows. A 54% year-on-year contraction in July followed by a 65% decline in August suggests that the impact extends beyond an initial period of implementation.

For Chinese marketplaces, the challenge will be preserving the price advantages that drove their European expansion while adapting to an environment where direct low-value imports no longer receive the same customs treatment. For European retailers, the rules could reduce part of the structural cost difference between locally stocked merchandise and individual products shipped directly from outside the EU.

For logistics companies, meanwhile, the transformation may be even more significant. The extraordinary growth of Chinese cross-border e-commerce helped reshape global air cargo during the first half of the decade. If Europe continues moving away from the direct-parcel model, the next phase of that transformation could increasingly take place inside European warehouses, fulfillment centers and domestic delivery networks.

The 65% decline is therefore more than an e-commerce sales indicator. It may be an early sign that one of the defining logistics models of global e-commerce is being rewritten.

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A major strategic divide is emerging over the future of agentic commerce. Shopify is opening its merchant ecosystem to Meta’s new AI shopping agent, Muse, while Amazon has taken the opposite approach and blocked the same agent from shopping on Amazon.com. The contrast reveals two very different visions of how AI should interact with online retail. Shopify appears willing to let third-party agents become a new commerce channel, while Amazon is defending tighter control over its marketplace, customer experience and commercial infrastructure.

On one side, Shopify is working with Meta so Muse can help users discover products and complete purchases across Shopify-powered stores using Shop Pay. On the other, Amazon says Meta did not obtain permission for Muse to access its marketplace and has blocked the agent from shopping on behalf of customers. The dispute raises a wider question for the entire e-commerce industry: should AI agents be welcomed as a new layer of distribution and checkout, or treated as external intermediaries that could weaken retailer control over customers, data and monetization?

Shopify embraces Meta’s Muse as an AI commerce channel

Shopify has chosen the more open approach. The company is partnering with Meta to integrate Shop Pay agentic checkout into Muse, allowing the AI assistant to facilitate purchases from merchants operating on Shopify. Shopify had already started preparing for this shift earlier in September by adding Meta as an AI channel inside Shopify Admin. Merchants can manage whether product catalogs are shared with Meta, control direct checkout access and monitor performance from within Shopify’s agentic-commerce settings.

This is significant because Shopify is not merely allowing Muse to browse merchant websites. It is connecting Meta to structured commerce infrastructure, giving the AI cleaner access to product data, availability and checkout functionality. That reduces the need for the agent to interpret conventional websites designed for humans. Instead, Shopify can act as the commerce layer beneath the AI interface, providing the product and transaction infrastructure while Meta controls the consumer-facing experience.

Shop Pay becomes the transaction layer

The partnership also highlights the strategic value of Shop Pay. Muse users will be able to complete purchases through Shopify’s accelerated checkout infrastructure across participating stores. That means the customer may begin and remain inside Meta’s AI environment while the transaction itself still flows through Shopify’s commerce stack. For Shopify, the loss of the traditional storefront as the primary interface does not necessarily mean losing the economic value of the transaction.

This is a critical distinction in the emerging agentic-commerce model. Shopify does not primarily depend on consumers visiting Shopify.com, because its business is built around providing infrastructure to merchants wherever commerce happens. If discovery increasingly moves into AI assistants, Shopify can still capture value through product feeds, checkout, payments and merchant operations. Its strategy therefore appears less focused on protecting the storefront and more focused on becoming indispensable infrastructure underneath AI-driven commerce.

Amazon takes the opposite approach

Amazon has chosen a far more restrictive position. The company blocked Muse from shopping on Amazon.com after Meta reportedly declined Amazon’s request to exclude its marketplace from the agent’s shopping capabilities. Users attempting to shop on Amazon through Muse began seeing a message stating that continued access by an unauthorized AI agent violated Amazon’s Conditions of Use. Amazon says the issue centers on authorization, transparency and how third-party agents interact with its platform.

According to Amazon, Meta did not provide advance notice that Muse would shop on Amazon.com, the agent does not adequately identify itself while browsing, and the company has concerns around customer credentials and account access. Amazon argues that third-party applications making purchases on behalf of users should operate transparently and respect whether a service provider wants to participate. The company’s position is that consumer permission alone is not enough; the merchant platform should also be able to decide whether an external agent can access and transact through its systems.

Meta disputes the credential-risk concern

Meta has said Muse does not directly see users’ passwords or payment credentials. According to the company, credentials are stored securely and can be used by the AI without being exposed to the model itself. Muse operates inside a virtual machine and can use a browser to interact with services when a public API is not available. Meta also says the agent seeks confirmation before taking sensitive actions such as sending messages or completing purchases.

This difference in interpretation is central to the dispute. Meta views the consumer as authorizing the agent to act on their behalf, while Amazon argues that the platform being accessed also needs to consent. That tension could become one of the most important legal and commercial questions in agentic commerce. It effectively asks whether an AI agent should be treated like a user-controlled browser, an automated bot, a commercial intermediary, or something entirely new.

Amazon wants AI agents to identify themselves

Amazon’s position is also closely linked to transparency and identity. The company argues that an external AI agent entering customer accounts, browsing product pages and initiating transactions should clearly identify itself to the retailer. This reflects a broader issue emerging across e-commerce and payments: merchants increasingly want to know which agent is acting, who authorized it, what permissions it has, whether it is operating within those limits and who is responsible if something goes wrong.

These are no longer theoretical questions. Payment networks including Mastercard and Visa are already developing identification and authorization layers specifically for AI agents. Amazon is effectively applying the same logic at the marketplace level. If agentic commerce is to scale, retailers may demand a standardized way to recognize trusted agents, verify user intent and establish accountability before allowing automated systems to interact deeply with their commerce infrastructure.

Shopify sees AI agents as another distribution channel

Shopify’s strategy appears fundamentally different. Rather than requiring consumers to begin every transaction within a Shopify-controlled environment, the company is treating AI assistants as another sales and distribution channel. This resembles the way Shopify already connects merchants with Google, social networks, marketplaces, mobile commerce and point-of-sale systems. Agentic platforms now become another route through which merchants can reach potential customers.

That approach fits Shopify’s architecture particularly well. Its value lies in powering merchants across multiple channels rather than owning a single consumer destination. If an AI platform becomes the place where shoppers discover and compare products, Shopify can still remain the system handling structured catalog data, merchant operations, payments and checkout. In that model, losing control of the interface does not necessarily mean losing control of the transaction infrastructure.

Amazon has more to lose from external agents

Amazon’s incentives are very different because its marketplace is not simply a transaction engine. The company controls product discovery, search, advertising, reviews, recommendations, checkout, fulfillment and customer service inside one highly integrated environment. External AI agents could bypass several of those layers by searching, comparing and selecting products on behalf of users without presenting Amazon’s traditional marketplace interface.

This matters because Amazon has built a huge advertising business around product discovery. Sponsored placements, search positioning and marketplace visibility are all tied to shoppers navigating Amazon directly. If an AI agent evaluates products based mainly on price, reviews, availability and delivery terms, some of the commercial value of those interfaces could be reduced. Amazon therefore has more strategic incentive than Shopify to preserve control over how shoppers discover and select products.

The fight is about who controls product discovery

This is why the Shopify-Amazon split matters beyond Muse itself. Agentic commerce is changing where product discovery happens. Today, shoppers typically search, browse, compare products, open listings, add items to a cart and complete checkout. An AI agent could compress that process into a single instruction such as: “Find me the best stroller under €500, with strong reviews and delivery before Friday.”

The agent could then search across multiple merchants, evaluate the available options and complete the transaction according to the user’s preferences. If that behavior becomes common, the center of gravity in e-commerce may move away from individual marketplace interfaces and toward AI platforms. The strategic question then becomes less about who owns the product listing and more about who owns the interface between shopper and merchant.

Shopify is betting on infrastructure, Amazon on ecosystem control

The two companies are effectively making different bets on the next phase of e-commerce. Shopify is betting that infrastructure remains valuable even if another company controls the consumer interface. Its role can still include catalog data, merchant operations, payments, checkout and order management. Amazon appears more determined to preserve control over both the infrastructure and the customer-facing environment, including search, advertising, recommendations and transaction flow.

Neither position is necessarily permanent. Amazon could eventually negotiate access agreements with selected AI platforms, while Shopify could impose stricter controls if agentic commerce creates problems for merchants. But the current split exposes two competing models. One is open and infrastructure-led, while the other is more closed and ecosystem-driven. Those models could shape how retailers interact with AI agents over the next several years.

Amazon is already challenging other AI shopping agents

Muse is not the first AI shopping agent Amazon has opposed. The company has also attempted to restrict access by agents from Perplexity, Google and OpenAI. Its dispute with Perplexity has already moved into the courts, where Amazon initially secured a preliminary injunction before a US appeals court later rejected part of its argument under federal anti-hacking law. Contractual claims based on terms of service remain a separate issue.

That legal background helps explain the language Amazon is now using with Muse. The company is framing the dispute around authorization and contractual access rather than purely around cybersecurity. This suggests Amazon is trying to establish a broader principle: AI agents should not assume unrestricted access to its commercial environment simply because an individual user authorizes them to act.

Amazon itself uses agentic shopping technology

Amazon is not opposed to AI shopping agents in principle. The company has developed its own agentic-commerce capabilities, including Buy for Me, which can help customers purchase products from external merchant sites, and Alexa for Shopping, which can research products and provide recommendations. Amazon argues that the difference lies in transparency and merchant consent.

According to Amazon, Buy for Me identifies itself when interacting with external merchants and allows businesses to opt out. That distinction reinforces the company’s central argument: the problem is not autonomous shopping itself, but how external agents enter and use another company’s commerce environment. In other words, Amazon supports agentic commerce when the rules of access are negotiated and visible to all participants.

Muse is gaining traction quickly

The dispute matters partly because Muse is already attracting significant attention. Meta launched the personal AI agent on September 8, positioning it as a system capable of handling multi-step tasks including shopping, appointment booking, email management and other everyday activities. Shortly after launch, Muse climbed rapidly through Apple’s US App Store rankings, indicating strong early consumer interest.

Growing adoption increases the urgency for retailers and commerce platforms to decide how they want to interact with these agents. For Shopify merchants, Meta represents a potential new source of product discovery and checkout. For Amazon, Muse currently represents an unauthorized intermediary operating inside a commercial environment Amazon has spent decades building and monetizing.

Agentic commerce could disrupt e-commerce advertising

Advertising may become one of the areas most affected by this shift. Traditional marketplaces monetize shopper attention by selling visibility within search results and product pages. Retailers pay to move products higher in rankings or increase exposure across marketplace interfaces. AI agents may operate differently, especially if they prioritize objective criteria such as price, delivery speed, return policies and product specifications.

If consumers increasingly delegate purchasing decisions to agents, traditional sponsored placement could become less influential. An AI may not respond to the same visual hierarchy and advertising formats as a human shopper. That creates a potential challenge not only for Amazon but also for Google and other platforms whose commercial models depend heavily on monetizing search and product discovery.

Merchants face their own strategic decision

Retailers will also need to decide how open they want to be to AI agents. Participation could bring significant benefits by creating new channels for product discovery, customer acquisition, conversion and cross-border sales. At the same time, merchants may lose some control over brand presentation, customer relationships, upselling and the overall shopping journey.

A consumer who shops entirely through Muse may never see the merchant’s homepage, marketing funnel or carefully designed product pages. Competition could therefore shift toward machine-readable factors such as price, stock availability, delivery speed, product attributes and returns. That would change how retailers think about optimization and could make structured product data increasingly important.

Structured commerce data becomes more valuable

Shopify’s role demonstrates this shift clearly. When Shopify shares catalog data directly with Meta, Muse does not need to scrape and interpret every merchant website independently. Instead, the agent can access standardized commerce information such as product descriptions, variants, prices, stock levels and checkout capabilities.

That gives Shopify an important strategic position in the agentic ecosystem. The company already sits between merchants and numerous external sales channels, and AI assistants can become another distribution layer connected to that infrastructure. As more shopping moves through agents, the platforms controlling high-quality structured commerce data may become increasingly valuable.

The future could split into open and closed commerce ecosystems

The Shopify-Amazon divide may point toward a broader fragmentation of agentic commerce. Some platforms may operate as open commerce infrastructure, allowing multiple AI agents to access catalogs and transactions through standardized integrations. Others may remain more closed, allowing only approved agents or proprietary AI experiences to participate.

The result could resemble earlier battles over mobile operating systems, app stores and platform APIs. Retailers and marketplaces may have to choose between reach and control, while AI companies may need to negotiate access to the largest commerce ecosystems rather than assuming they can browse and transact freely.

A defining battle over the next e-commerce interface

The dispute between Shopify, Amazon and Meta ultimately comes down to control. Meta wants Muse to become an interface through which consumers can complete everyday tasks, including shopping. Shopify sees an opportunity to make its merchant ecosystem accessible through that interface. Amazon sees an external agent entering a shopping environment it has spent decades building, optimizing and monetizing.

All three positions are commercially rational, but they point toward very different futures for e-commerce. Shopify’s model says the consumer can shop anywhere while Shopify provides the infrastructure underneath. Amazon’s model says the shopping environment itself remains strategically important and should not be accessed by third-party agents without permission. As AI shopping agents become more capable, the next major battle in e-commerce may not be over assortment or delivery speed, but over which AI is allowed to stand between the shopper and the store.

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Salesupply has expanded its international logistics network by opening a new fulfillment center and returns hub in Switzerland. Located in Embrach, in the canton of Zurich, the facility lets international e-commerce brands store inventory, fulfill domestic Swiss orders, and process returns without repeatedly moving goods across the Swiss-EU border.

The location is situated close to Zurich Airport and the surrounding customs infrastructure, positioning the facility to support both domestic distribution and international inventory flows. For Salesupply, Switzerland becomes the latest node in a fulfillment network that already covers multiple markets across Europe, North America, and other international regions.

The expansion is particularly relevant for cross-border merchants because Switzerland is not part of the European Union or the EU customs union. Consequently, an e-commerce shipment entering Switzerland from an EU member state is treated as an import and must comply with Swiss customs and VAT requirements.

Local fulfillment could simplify selling into Switzerland

For European online retailers, Switzerland represents an attractive but operationally distinct e-commerce market. Unlike shipments moving between EU member states, goods entering Switzerland are subject to customs procedures and potentially import VAT.

Switzerland currently applies a standard VAT rate of 8.1%, while certain categories of goods qualify for the reduced 2.6% rate. Import VAT can therefore become an important part of the customer experience when retailers sell into the country from warehouses located elsewhere in Europe.

Depending on the shipping and customs arrangement the merchant uses, customers may face additional charges for taxation, customs processing, or carrier handling when their parcel enters Switzerland. These additional steps can make the buying experience less predictable compared with a purely domestic transaction.

By placing inventory in Switzerland before fulfilling individual customer orders, merchants can ship subsequent orders domestically. Salesupply argues this can provide customers with clearer pricing while reducing the customs administration associated with individual cross-border parcels.

Salesupply targets the cost of cross-border returns

Returns are another area where the Swiss border can add complexity.

When a product originally shipped into Switzerland is subsequently returned to a warehouse in the European Union, the parcel crosses a customs border again. Depending on how the process is structured and documented, merchants can face customs-clearance requirements and additional administrative costs.

For categories with relatively high return rates, these costs can matter more. Fashion, footwear and consumer electronics retailers, for example, may need to manage substantial volumes of merchandise moving back through their supply chains.

Salesupply's new Swiss returns hub is intended to keep returned merchandise in the country. Products can be received and processed locally before the retailer decides whether they should be restocked, consolidated or otherwise handled.

The model effectively separates consumer returns from international inventory movement. Rather than sending every individual return back across the border, merchants can manage the return locally and potentially consolidate subsequent international movements.

Embrach facility supports domestic Swiss fulfillment

The new center in Embrach gives Salesupply customers the option to hold stock directly in Switzerland and fulfill orders through domestic delivery networks. For international brands, this approach can help create a customer experience that more closely resembles purchasing from a Swiss-based retailer. Inventory is already in the country, customer orders don't need to complete an individual import process, and returns can be directed to a domestic location.

Local inventory can also become more valuable as consumers expect shorter, more predictable delivery windows. Cross-border shipping can add variables, including customs processing, documentation requirements, and potential border delays. A Swiss fulfillment operation removes the international customs process from the final delivery leg once inventory has entered the country.

Swiss fulfillment can support marketplace sellers

The new operation may also be relevant to brands selling through Swiss marketplaces, particularly Digitec Galaxus.

Switzerland's largest e-commerce platforms place significant emphasis on product availability, delivery performance, and reliable after-sales processes. Sellers operating internationally therefore need logistics infrastructure that meets Swiss consumer expectations while complying with individual marketplace requirements.

Salesupply specifically highlighted Galaxus when announcing the new facility, noting that delivery speed, availability and returns infrastructure can influence marketplace operations. The company says that sellers on the platform require access to a Swiss returns address.

For brands entering Switzerland through marketplace channels, combining local inventory with a domestic returns operation can therefore provide both logistical and commercial advantages.

Instead of treating Switzerland simply as another European destination served from an EU warehouse, merchants can operate with a dedicated local logistics setup.

Switzerland remains a distinct cross-border e-commerce market

Switzerland represents an unusual opportunity for European e-commerce businesses. Geographically, it sits at the center of Western Europe and borders major EU economies including Germany, France, Italy and Austria. From a customs perspective, however, it remains a separate market.

This distinction means that fulfillment strategies commonly used across the European Union do not necessarily produce the same results in Switzerland. A retailer can, for example, serve customers in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and many other EU markets from a single European warehouse without customs declarations for every intra-EU consumer shipment. Sending the same product into Switzerland creates a formal import. That difference makes inventory positioning especially important.

Moving goods into Switzerland in larger inventory shipments and then fulfilling consumer orders domestically can shift customs processing from the individual customer transaction to the retailer's supply-chain operation. For companies generating sufficient Swiss order volumes, local fulfillment can therefore become increasingly attractive.

One integration across Salesupply's fulfillment network

Salesupply says the Swiss facility will operate using the same infrastructure as its other international fulfillment locations. Customers using multiple Salesupply warehouses can manage operations through a single IT integration and a real-time inventory dashboard. The company also monitors the network through its Fulfillment Control Tower, which oversees operations and identifies potential disruptions across fulfillment locations.

The objective is to allow existing Salesupply customers to add Switzerland to their fulfillment footprint without establishing an entirely separate logistics system.

For brands entering the country for the first time, the company says the service combines local inventory management, domestic order fulfillment, returns processing and support with Swiss VAT and customs operations.

Salesupply continues expanding its international fulfillment footprint

The launch in Switzerland is part of Salesupply's wider strategy to help online retailers position inventory closer to consumers in individual markets. The Dutch e-commerce service provider offers international fulfillment, customer service and returns solutions. According to the company, more than 500 online brands and retailers use its services, including Carhartt, Segway Ninebot and Panasonic.

Salesupply also provides customer service in more than 25 languages across three time zones and operates fulfillment infrastructure designed to help merchants expand internationally while delivering locally. The company is headquartered in Nijmegen, the Netherlands, and operates across markets including the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, and the Nordic region.

Adding Switzerland gives Salesupply another strategically important European fulfillment location while addressing a key challenge of Swiss cross-border e-commerce: the customs border separating the country from the European Union. For retailers with meaningful sales volumes in Switzerland, local fulfillment could reduce customs interactions affecting individual customer orders while creating a more predictable domestic delivery and returns experience.

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Is it cheaper—and ultimately more profitable—to employ someone working from home or sitting in an office? The answer is more complicated than simply comparing salaries or office rent. Profitability depends on at least four variables: how much an employee produces, how much it costs to provide their workplace, how likely they are to leave, and how effectively the company can recruit the people it needs.

A growing body of research from Stanford University, Harvard, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the OECD, Nature, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides enough data to start putting numbers behind the debate.

And the numbers vary enormously. In controlled studies, working from home has produced results ranging from an 18% productivity decline to a 13% productivity increase. A newer study found a 10% increase. Hybrid work, meanwhile, has produced essentially no measurable productivity penalty while reducing employee departures by 33%.

Perhaps the most commercially interesting finding arrived in 2026: researchers found that bringing fully remote employees into an office only one day per month generated enough productivity and retention improvements to produce an estimated benefit-cost ratio of approximately 5:1.

So which model actually makes more money?

Remote vs office work by the numbers

The research provides some strikingly different results depending on the type of work being performed.

These numbers immediately reveal something important. No universal productivity premium is associated with either the home or the office. The economic advantage depends heavily on the type of employee, the type of task, and how remote work is organized.

The famous Stanford experiment: home workers produced 13% more

One of the best-known experiments was conducted by Stanford researchers at Chinese travel company Ctrip. The company employed approximately 16,000 people and randomly assigned eligible call-center workers either to work from home or remain in the office for nine months. The home workers produced 13% more output.

That gain had two components. Around 9 percentage points came from employees working more minutes during their shifts because they took fewer breaks and sick days.

Another 4 percentage points came from employees processing more calls per minute, which researchers linked partly to the quieter home environment.

Employee turnover also fell by approximately 50%. Then something even more interesting happened. After the experiment, Ctrip allowed employees to choose whether they wanted to work from home or return to the office.

More than half changed their original working arrangement. Once employees had sorted themselves into the environment they preferred, the measured productivity advantage of homeworking increased from 13% to approximately 22%.

That suggests an important profitability factor companies sometimes overlook: The most productive workplace may not be the same for every employee.

Another experiment found remote productivity 10% higher

A newer NBER study published in 2025 examined a large call center in Turkey after it shifted to fully remote work. Researchers found that workforce productivity increased by 10%.

Remote employees completed calls faster, with the researchers again pointing to the quieter home environment as one explanation. But there was another economic advantage.

Going remote allowed the company to recruit from smaller towns, rural locations, and demographic groups with lower labor-force participation. As a result, the share of university graduates employed by the company increased by 14% without increasing wages.

From a profitability perspective, this is potentially as significant as the productivity result. Remote work did not merely change where existing employees performed their jobs. It changed the company's available labor market.

But another randomized experiment found home workers 18% less productive

The case for remote work becomes much less straightforward when looking at another randomized controlled trial. Researchers studying data-entry employees in Chennai, India randomly assigned workers to either home or office environments.

Employees working from home were 18% less productive. Approximately two-thirds of the productivity difference appeared immediately. The remainder developed over time because office workers learned faster.

Even more surprisingly, employees who actually preferred working from home experienced particularly large productivity losses when doing so. Workers who preferred WFH were about 27% less productive at home than in the office, compared with a 13% reduction among workers who preferred office work. This provides an important counterweight to the Ctrip findings.

Homeworking can produce a double-digit productivity gain in one workplace and a double-digit loss in another.

Another Fortune 500 study found an 8–12% remote productivity gap

Research published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics examined call-center operations at a Fortune 500 company. Before COVID-19, employees working remotely handled approximately 12% fewer calls per hour than employees based on site.

When office closures forced everyone to work remotely, part of the difference disappeared. However, an approximately 8% productivity difference remained between employees who had originally selected remote jobs and those originally hired into office positions.

The researchers concluded that savings from lower turnover and office rent could offset the direct productivity disadvantage of remote work—but not necessarily the cost of attracting less productive workers into remote positions.

This introduces yet another variable into the profitability equation:

Who applies for the job can matter almost as much as where the job is performed.

Hybrid working may solve much of the productivity problem

The clearest evidence in favor of hybrid work comes from another randomized controlled trial involving Trip.com. Researchers followed 1,612 engineers, marketing employees and finance professionals.

One group continued working in the office five days a week. The other worked from home two days a week and went to the office three. The result? There was no significant difference in performance ratings. Promotions did not decrease measurably.

Software engineers did not produce less code. Yet employee attrition dropped from 7.2% to 4.8%. That is a reduction of 2.4 percentage points, or approximately 33% relative to the office-only group. For profitability, that difference matters enormously.

What does a 33% reduction in turnover actually mean in money?

Trip.com estimated that replacing an employee cost around $20,000 in recruitment and training.

Consider a hypothetical company with 1,000 employees experiencing the same turnover rates found in the experiment.

Under the office model: 

• 7.2% × 1,000 = 72 departures

Under the hybrid model:

• 4.8% × 1,000 = 48 departures

Difference: 24 fewer employees leaving over six months

At $20,000 per replacement: 24 × $20,000 = $480,000

So the hybrid organization would save approximately:

• $480,000 per 1,000 employees over six months purely through lower recruitment and training costs.

A simple annualized extrapolation would be:

$960,000 per 1,000 employees per year

However, that annual figure should be treated as an illustrative extrapolation rather than a measured result because the experiment itself measured the relevant attrition difference over six months.

More importantly, this calculation includes zero office-space savings. It includes zero energy savings. It includes zero commuting effects.

And it assumes zero productivity advantage for hybrid employees. The economic gain comes almost entirely from retaining more workers.

Employees themselves value homeworking at approximately 5% of salary

Another large international NBER study covering workers in 27 countries provides a different way to quantify the value of remote work.

Researchers asked employees to place a monetary value on working from home.

On average, workers valued the ability to work from home two or three days per week at approximately 5% of their salary.

Consider an employee earning €50,000.

Five percent of their salary is:

• €2,500 per year

For someone earning €70,000:

• €3,500 per year

At €100,000:

• €5,000 per year

This does not mean employers can automatically cut salaries by 5%.

But economically, it means flexibility functions partly like a non-cash employment benefit.

For a company competing for workers, the ability to offer hybrid work can therefore carry considerable recruitment value without appearing on the salary line of the P&L.

Other Harvard-linked research also found that 21% of workers would accept a pay reduction greater than 10% in exchange for retaining the ability to work remotely, although the median teleworkable employee was not willing to sacrifice compensation.

Homeworking saves an average of 72 minutes per day

Time provides another measurable economic benefit.

Researchers examining workers in 27 countries calculated that employees save an average of 72 minutes every day they work from home by eliminating their commute.

But employees do not use all 72 minutes for leisure.

Approximately 40% of the saved commuting time is reallocated to work.

That equals:

72 × 40% = 28.8 minutes

of additional work-related time for every homeworking day.

For an employee working remotely two days per week:

28.8 × 2 = 57.6 additional minutes per week

Across 50 working weeks:

57.6 × 50 = 2,880 minutes

or approximately:

48 additional hours per year

That is roughly six eight-hour working days of time redirected towards work.

Again, this should not automatically be interpreted as six additional days of productive output. But it illustrates why commuting time is economically relevant when comparing home and office work.

The U.S. government data also points towards lower operating costs

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics examined the relationship between remote working and productivity across 61 private-sector industries.

Its findings are particularly useful because they consider not just labour productivity but the broader combination of inputs required to generate output.

After accounting for pre-pandemic productivity trends, a one-percentage-point increase in remote workers was associated with approximately 0.05 percentage points higher total-factor-productivity growth.

The cost effects were even more interesting.

Every one-percentage-point increase in remote working was associated with approximately:

–0.10 percentage points in unit labour-cost growth

–0.27 percentage points in unit capital-cost growth

–0.18 percentage points in unit energy-cost growth

–0.16 percentage points in unit materials-cost growth

–0.20 percentage points in unit services-cost growth

and approximately:

–0.38 percentage points in unit office-building-cost growth.

These are industry-level statistical associations rather than proof that each percentage point of remote working directly causes an equivalent cost reduction.

Nevertheless, the pattern is notable.

Industries where remote working expanded more tended to experience slower growth in multiple categories of business cost.

Offices can cost thousands per employee per year

Real-world property data helps put the office component into perspective.

The UK Crown Prosecution Service reported £33.1 million in annual estate running costs in its 2025–26 property plan.

The organization had approximately 7,240 full-time-equivalent employees and 3,900 workstations.

That equates to roughly:

£4,572 in annual property running costs per employee

while providing only:

0.54 physical workstations per employee.

This is not directly transferable to a private company, but it demonstrates how hybrid working can fundamentally change the economics of office capacity.

Instead of requiring:

1 employee = 1 desk

the CPS operates at approximately:

1 employee = 0.54 desks

In another UK government example, an independent review calculated that the IOPC's Canary Wharf office cost approximately £7,428 per FTE per year.

At actual average attendance, however, the effective cost per occupied desk rose above £56,000 per year because so much space was unused.

Underutilized office space can therefore become extraordinarily expensive.

Madrid prime office rent has reached €45 per square metre per month

The office-cost argument is particularly relevant in expensive European cities.

JLL reported that prime Madrid office rents reached approximately:

€45/m²/month

by the second quarter of 2026.

For comparison, the UK central government office estate reported average space utilization of approximately:

7.2 m² per FTE

in 2024–25.

Using those figures purely as an illustrative scenario:

7.2 m² × €45 × 12 months = €3,888

That represents approximately €3,888 of prime annual rent per employee, before service charges, electricity, cleaning, furniture, security, insurance, IT infrastructure and other workplace costs.

For 1,000 workers:

€3.89 million per year

in illustrative rent alone.

Again, this is not a market-wide employer average: it combines a prime Madrid rental benchmark with a public-sector office-space benchmark simply to demonstrate the scale of the property variable.

Fully remote work may still carry an average productivity penalty

Despite the positive examples, Stanford researchers reviewing the wider evidence estimate that fully remote work is approximately 10% less productive than fully in-person work on average.

The researchers identify communication difficulties, weaker mentoring, company culture and motivation among the likely reasons.

But their economic conclusion is particularly important.

They argue that the cost savings from fully remote work—especially office-space savings and access to lower-cost global talent—can be larger than the productivity loss.

That distinction is central to the profitability question.

Imagine that an office worker produces €100 of economic output at a cost of €80.

Profit contribution:

€20

Suppose moving the job remotely reduces output by 10%:

€90 output

But employment and infrastructure costs fall from €80 to €65.

Profit contribution becomes:

€25

The employee is now less productive but more profitable.

This is only an illustrative example, but it demonstrates why productivity statistics alone cannot answer the remote-work profitability question.

Office work has measurable economic advantages too

Physical offices are not simply an expense.

They can generate productive interactions.

A major Microsoft study examining communication patterns among 61,182 employees found that company-wide remote work made collaboration networks more static and siloed.

Employees developed fewer connections between different parts of the organization and shifted from synchronous communication towards more asynchronous communication.

Another recent study of software engineers found that physical proximity to teammates increased coding feedback by 18.3% and improved code quality.

The gains were particularly concentrated among younger and less-experienced employees.

But proximity also imposed a cost: experienced engineers produced less code when sitting near colleagues because some of their time was effectively being transferred into helping others.

From an organizational perspective, that may still be profitable.

The senior engineer produces less today, but the junior engineer becomes better tomorrow.

This type of knowledge transfer is extremely difficult to capture in conventional productivity statistics.

What if remote workers only came to the office once a month?

Perhaps the most interesting recent experiment was published by the NBER in June 2026.

Researchers randomly divided 248 fully remote customer-service employees into two groups.

One remained fully remote.

The second group came into the office together just:

one day per month.

The results were surprisingly large.

Employees attending the monthly office day eventually handled:

7.8% more calls per hour.

They also spent:

36 additional minutes communicating with colleagues

during the week after attending the office.

Workers randomly seated next to each other were:

11 percentage points more likely to communicate afterwards.

And employee attrition fell by approximately:

one-third.

Researchers calculated that the combined productivity and retention gains generated an estimated:

5:1 benefit-cost ratio.

That means approximately $5 of economic benefit for every $1 spent implementing the coordinated monthly office day in that particular setting.

This result changes the remote-versus-office question considerably.

The optimum arrangement may not require choosing between zero office days and five office days.

In some organizations, the economic value of an office may be concentrated into a surprisingly small number of strategically coordinated interactions.

The OECD reaches a similar conclusion: two to three remote days

The OECD surveyed managers and workers across 25 countries and found that both groups generally viewed teleworking positively.

But neither extreme emerged as the preferred model.

The estimated ideal was approximately:

2–3 remote days per week.

The OECD describes the relationship as an inverted U.

At low levels of remote work, employees gain from reduced commuting, fewer distractions and greater autonomy.

As remote intensity becomes very high, however, communication and knowledge flows begin deteriorating.

The highest efficiency may therefore occur somewhere between the two extremes.

Interestingly, OECD managers estimated that approximately 42% of the workforce should have teleworking arrangements, while only around 5% should work completely from home.

A hypothetical 1,000-worker profitability calculation

Consider a knowledge-based company employing 1,000 people.

Assume that its workforce behaves similarly to the employees in the Trip.com hybrid experiment.

Moving from five office days to two home days produces:

Measured productivity effect: approximately 0%

Turnover reduction: approximately 33%

Six-month departures avoided: approximately 24

Replacement cost per employee: $20,000

Result:

$480,000 saved every six months

or an annualized theoretical figure of:

$960,000

before property savings.

Now assume each employee values hybrid working at approximately 5% of salary, consistent with the international NBER research.

At an average €60,000 salary:

€60,000 × 5% = €3,000

of perceived annual flexibility value per worker.

Across 1,000 workers:

€3 million of employee-perceived benefit

without necessarily adding €3 million to payroll.

Finally, two remote days each week generate approximately:

48 hours of commuting time annually redirected towards work per employee

using the international commuting study's averages.

Across 1,000 employees:

approximately 48,000 hours per year.

Not every one of those hours converts directly into saleable output, so it would be incorrect to add them mechanically to profit.

But together, the numbers show why hybrid work can have a powerful economic proposition even when measured employee productivity remains exactly the same.

So what is actually more profitable: home or office?

The evidence increasingly suggests that asking whether “home” or “office” is more profitable is the wrong binary question.

Fully remote work can generate impressive savings and, in some jobs, productivity increases of 10–22%.

But other controlled experiments have found homeworking productivity losses reaching 18%.

Full-time office work can improve learning, mentoring and cross-team knowledge transfer, yet companies pay substantially more property and commuting-related costs to maintain it.

Hybrid work currently produces the most consistent economic evidence.

One of the strongest randomized studies found:

0% meaningful productivity loss

combined with:

33% lower employee attrition.

International research suggests employees value that flexibility at approximately:

5% of salary.

OECD research suggests the optimum is around:

2–3 remote days per week.

And the newest randomized experiment suggests that even predominantly remote organizations may capture substantial office benefits through coordinated physical interaction as infrequent as:

one day per month

with researchers calculating a:

~5:1 benefit-cost ratio.

The emerging economic argument is therefore not that the office has become unnecessary.

It is that companies may need considerably less office than they once assumed.

For many knowledge businesses, the most profitable model may be one in which employees perform concentration-heavy individual work remotely while offices are deliberately used for the activities where physical proximity produces the greatest return: collaboration, training, mentoring, innovation and relationship building.

In other words, the financially relevant question may no longer be:

“Are home workers or office workers more productive?”

It may be:

“How many office days does a company actually need to pay for in order to capture the economic benefits of being together?”

Current experimental evidence increasingly suggests that the answer may be considerably fewer than five.

The post Homeworking vs Office Work: Which Is More Profitable for Employers? appeared first on Cross-Border Magazine.