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              FOREWORD












                                                                too have to invest in cost flexibilisation. That’s non-negotiable
                                                                if they want to survive.

                                                                New automation opportunities
                                                                Automation is critical here. Until a few years ago, the tech
                                                                was expensive, and the possibilities limited. Most investments
                                                                were based on the maximum expected peak capacity, but the
                                                                infrastructure itself was lacking in flexibility. Often, the money
                                                                was spent on a sorter, a huge conveyor that takes up a lot of
                                                                space, offers few up or downscaling opportunities and demands
                                                                a big investment.

                                                                Now technological development has accelerated, opening up
                                                                new dynamic—and more affordable—solutions. The need for
                                                                flexibility, paired with labour shortages, incentivises warehouses
                                                                to automate and robotise all processes that meet the criteria. The
                                                                rise of autonomous mobile robots and goods-to-person systems
              “IS THE FAIRY TALE OVER?”                         is driving this revolution. They offer flexible, accessible solutions
                                                                to respond to various challenges, including capacity, turnaround
                  trange things are happening in the international   time and staff shortages.
                  e-commerce market. Online sales have dropped
              Sfor the first time in history. Have we reached peak   More robots
              online? Is the fairy tale over? It’s too soon to say. But the   bpostgroup subsidiary Radial is already highly automated in
              increased volatility in the market is sure to have an impact   North America. In Radial Europe, next to the automated site
              on the logistics industry. Flexibility will be key.   in Germany, Radial is further automating in Poland and has
                                                                ordered its first wave goods to man robots for the Netherlands.
              The lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 gave e-commerce   We can now achieve much more than we could with past
              worldwide a huge lift. Growth slowed towards the end of   systems and at a fraction of the outlay. There are so many
              2021. But virtually all countries are now seeing volumes slide.   advantages: a shorter implementation time, better scalability,
              Global revenue from online sales has shrunk 3% this year   lower demands in terms of space, and fewer demanding,
              compared with the same period in 2021. The decline was even   repetitive tasks for staff, who are freed up to add more value.
              more marked in Europe at -13%.
                                                                Flexibilisation will be key
              The question is whether this fall in turnover is structural or   Looking to the future, the solution for e-commerce companies is
              cyclical. The latter is most likely. This presumably has to do   to maximise the flexibility of their capacity and make their costs
              with the sudden hike in inflation and rising energy prices.   as controllable as possible. The need for fulfilment centres that
              Consumer purchasing power is falling, leading to a dip in   harness the benefits of scalable goods-to-person technology is
              spending. The bigger fall in Europe is likely due to the war in   plain for everyone to see. Flexibilisation will be key over the next
              Ukraine.                                          few months and years. The market is advised to gear up now.

              Each of these factors is basically strong enough to lead to   Dries De Love
              stagnation. Add them all together, and you get a downswing.   Executive Vice President, Europe, Radial, a bpost company
              No one knows whether this will end soon, but a rebound is
              not on the cards in the short term. Even Amazon’s share price
              has taken a hit, which tells you everything you need to know.
              Fact is, when the e-commerce market was on the up, many
              companies invested in their logistics machinery, especially
              warehouse capacity and automation. The volatility of demand
              and the speed of change mean that - more than ever - they







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