The New Silk Road: Temu Rise in the EU + Sales, Market Value & 2025–2026 Forecast

Chinese e-commerce platforms are disrupting the European retail landscape, the so-called New Silk Road, with Temu leading the charge. Backed by PDD Holdings, Temu has rapidly expanded across the EU, challenging established players such as AliExpress, Shein, and TikTok Shop.

This article explores mainly Temu's current sales figures, estimated market value, and a forecast for 2025–2026 in the European Union.

Current Sales Numbers and Market Share in the EU

Massive Growth in User Base

Temu reached approximately 92 million monthly active users in the EU by late 2024. The platform gained rapid traction due to its ultra-low prices, flash deals, and aggressive social media marketing.

Explosive Revenue and GMV

Globally, Temu's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew from $14 billion in 2023 to $70.8 billion in 2024. Based on internal data and market estimates, Temu's EU GMV in 2024 was around $10–12 billion. The platform experienced 63% year-over-year growth in the EU, with France and Germany being standout markets.

New Silk Road Estimated Market Value and Profitability Outlook

Parent Company Valuation

Temu is owned by PDD Holdings, which had a market capitalization of over $200 billion by mid-2024. This gives Temu significant financial leverage to continue expanding in Europe.

Path to Profitability

Despite rapid growth, Temu is still operating at a loss. Analysts estimate per-order losses of $30, totaling up to $950 million annually. However, with increasing logistics efficiency and local warehousing, Temu is expected to reach operational profitability by 2026, with a projected operating income of $775 million (CN¥5.6 billion).

Forecast for 2025–2026: What’s Next for Temu in Europe?

2025–2026 GMV Projections

Based on current growth rates, Temu’s EU GMV is projected to exceed $15 billion in 2025 and could surpass $20 billion by the end of 2026. This would make it one of the top online marketplaces in Europe.

Expansion Strategy

Temu is focusing on:

• Local fulfillment centers to reduce delivery times
  
• European seller recruitment to bypass import tariffs
  
• AI-powered product discovery to increase conversion rates
  

These strategies are designed to improve customer experience and lower operational costs.

Regulatory and Competitive Challenges

Temu faces increasing pressure from the EU Digital Services Act, environmental regulations, and a proposed €2 flat fee per parcel from non-EU countries. It must also compete with:

• Shein in fast fashion
  
• AliExpress in electronics and accessories
  
• TikTok Shop in impulse-driven, influencer-based shopping
  

Competitive Landscape of the New Silk Road: Temu vs. Other Chinese Marketplaces

Temu’s aggressive expansion, combined with its parent company’s financial muscle, makes it a dominant force in the EU’s budget-friendly online shopping space.

Temu is transforming the e-commerce landscape in the EU with unbeatable prices, fast-growing user numbers, and a clear roadmap to profitability. While it faces challenges from regulators and competitors, its momentum shows no signs of slowing. By 2026, Temu is expected to be among the top 5 e-commerce platforms in Europe, driving innovation and fierce price competition.