Germany's E-Commerce Forecast Raised to €92.4 Billion for 2025

August 7, 2025 by
Frank Calviño

In May 2025, the German Retail Association (HDE) officially raised its forecast for e-commerce revenue in Germany to €92.4 billion, marking a 4% year-over-year increase. This revision reflects the sector’s renewed momentum after a period of slowdowns caused by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and weakened consumer confidence.

E-Commerce Recovery in Context

Germany’s e-commerce sector rebounded in 2024 with a 3.8% increase, reaching approximately €88.8 billion in total sales. This recovery contrasts with sluggish growth in overall retail, which advanced by just 1.1%, underscoring the central role of e-commerce in driving the German retail economy.

Sector Performance and Growth Drivers

FMCG Leads E-Commerce Expansion

Among all product categories, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)—including food, personal care, and health items—recorded the strongest online growth at 7.3% in 2024. This was followed by steady performance in the fashion, electronics, and home goods sectors.

Marketplaces Dominate the Channel Mix

All of Germany’s e-commerce growth in 2024 came from online marketplaces, which grew 8.8%, while traditional single-brand webshops declined by around 5.4%.
Marketplaces now account for 57% of total online sales, and Amazon.de alone controls approximately 63% of Germany’s entire e-commerce market—combining its own retail operations and third-party sellers.

Cross-Border Sales and Global Competition

Foreign sellers contributed around €8.9 billion, or roughly 10% of Germany’s online sales. Notably, Chinese players such as Temu and Shein are estimated to have generated €2.7–3.3 billion, underscoring the competitive pressure from international platforms.

Consumer Trends Driving Market Dynamics

Mobile Shopping Is Now the Norm

Mobile devices now account for 66% of all e-commerce transactions in Germany. These mobile sales generated more than €46.7 billion in 2024, evenly split between mobile-optimized websites and shopping apps.

Interestingly, older demographics (55+) are increasingly active, placing an average of 35 online orders per year, with typical basket sizes of around €52. This aging consumer segment is playing a larger role in e-commerce than ever before.

Sustainability and Second-Hand Markets

Germany’s second-hand and recommerce market reached nearly €10 billion in 2024, showing a 7.2% annual growth rate. Top-performing second-hand categories include fashion, books, and consumer electronics.

At the same time, sustainability continues to influence buyer behavior. More consumers are demanding eco-friendly shipping options, transparent return policies, and longer product lifecycles, especially among younger, urban populations.

Strategic Priorities for E-Commerce Businesses

Expand Marketplace Presence

Since all growth is being driven by marketplace platforms, businesses need to strengthen their visibility on channels like Amazon, Zalando, Otto, eBay, and Kaufland. Tailored product feeds, competitive pricing, and fulfillment efficiency are now essential.

Invest in FMCG and Essential Goods

The rise of FMCG online sales creates opportunities for retailers that can handle fast, reliable delivery, cold-chain logistics, and daily-need replenishment. Subscriptions and loyalty programs are effective tools in this category.

Optimize for Mobile and Personalization

With mobile commerce accounting for two-thirds of revenue, businesses must invest in intuitive mobile UX, mobile apps, and AI-driven personalization to stay competitive across demographics.

Embrace Sustainability and Recommerce

Offering sustainable delivery, second-hand inventory, and CO₂-neutral packaging will help brands earn trust and stand out in a highly values-driven marketplace.

Key Figures: German E-Commerce Outlook 2025

Metric2024 Result2025 Forecast
Total e-commerce revenue€88.8 billion€92.4 billion (+4%)
FMCG online growth+7.3%Expected to rise
Share of marketplace sales57%Growing dominance
Mobile-driven online revenue€46.7 billionIncreasing
Foreign seller share~10% (€8.9 B)Holding steady
Second-hand e-commerce volume€9.9 billion+7.2% year-on-year

The HDE’s upward revision to €92.4 billion confirms that Germany’s e-commerce sector is regaining strength. While growth is being led by marketplaces, FMCG, and mobile-first behavior, success will depend on a retailer’s ability to adapt to evolving consumer expectations. 

Those that embrace convenience, personalization, sustainability, and competitive pricing are poised to lead in Germany’s next phase of digital commerce growth.

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