Uk: Lower cross-border basket values following Brexit

With the pound dropping steeply following the Brexit referendum result of June 23rd, orders leaving the UK soared during the last days of the month, leading tot he highest June figure in the five-year history of the IMRG MetaPack UK Delivery Index. However, the index also revealed a 13% drop in oder values compared tot he May figures.

So far in 2016, the average order value recorded in the index each month has been increasing compared to the same months last year. In June this trend reversed however, with the order value for EU and non-EU destinations falling.

Andrew Starkey, head of e-logistics, IMRG, commented: “The data this month provides a reasonably clear indication that there were some early impacts on delivery orders following the EU referendum, but it’s worth keeping in mind that June’s data only included one week of post-Brexit tracking – it’s just too early to say if we are seeing the start of a genuine shift in trends. We knew that sterling would take a sudden sharp hit in the event of a vote to leave, but over time it would be expected to recover again – the more important factor for retailers will be how shopper confidence fares in the long-term.”

However, none of these trends allow any conclusion of consequences of an actual Brexit. Only after the actual exit of the UK of the European Union, with new trade agreements negotiated and a clear picture of selling conditions in Europe and the UK, will the real impact become evident.