Black Friday 2025: Playbook + Forecast!

As the biggest online shopping event of the year, Black Friday 2025 is scheduled for Friday, November 28, followed by Cyber Monday and the wider Cyber Week. Early deals are expected from mid‑November, as retailers extend the sale window to stay competitive and avoid stock issues.

Key Trends & Forecast Highlights

• Record-shattering online growth: Online Black Friday sales reached $10.8 billion in the U.S. during 2024, a 10‑11% increase from 2023.
  
• Global spending reached $74.4 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase.
  
• Mobile shopping dominance: Around 70% of online purchases were made via mobile devices.
  
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) contributed approximately $686 million, up 8.8% from 2023.
  
• AI-driven conversions: Retailers using AI chatbots saw conversion increases of nearly 9%.
  
• Category highlights: Toys (+622%), jewelry (+561%), appliances (+476%), personal care (+440%) and electronics (+334%) saw exceptional spikes compared to October averages.
  

Forecast: What the Black Friday 2025 May Bring?

Based on 2024 trends and mid-year sales momentum, here’s what to expect in 2025:

Why this growth?

• Continued mobile shopping acceleration, with smartphones driving the majority of purchases.
  
• Consumers are increasingly conditioned by mid-year mega sales, like Prime Day.
  
• Wider adoption of AI personalization and BNPL services is driving higher conversions and larger carts.
  

Black Friday 2024 in Review

2024’s performance sets the tone for 2025:

• U.S. online sales: $10.8 billion (up 10.2% from 2023)
  
• Global sales: $74.4 billion (up 5% YoY)
  
• Mobile share: Ranged from 55% to 70% of total online sales
  
• Cyber Week total (U.S.): $41.1 billion
  
• Category standouts:
  
  • Toys: +622%
    
  • Jewelry: +561%
    
  • Appliances: +476%
    
  • Personal care: +440%
    
  • Electronics: +334%
    
• Retailer performance:
  
  • Walmart: +3% total growth
    
  • Amazon: +6% in online revenue
    
  • Shopify merchants: $4.1 billion in sales (+22%)
    

Tips to Capitalize on 2025 Deals

1. Start early & set alerts: Retailers will launch deals as early as mid-November.
   
2. Prioritize mobile platforms: Apps and mobile sites will drive the majority of traffic.
   
3. Use BNPL wisely: It can help spread costs, and deals will often be paired with BNPL incentives.
   
4. AI-enhanced shopping: Look for personalized deals, chatbots, and product recommendations.
   
5. Subscribe to email and SMS updates: Early access deals and flash sales often go to subscribers first.
   
6. Watch for timed flash deals: These can yield the biggest discounts but require quick action.
   

Black Friday 2025 is poised to break new records in online spending—over $12 billion in the U.S. alone, and $80 billion globally. With mobile commerce, AI personalization, and flexible payment options driving the surge, both retailers and shoppers should prepare early. The smartest brands will meet consumers where they are—on mobile, with smart recommendations and seamless experiences.

For savvy shoppers: finalize your wishlist, monitor prices now, and act fast when the deals land.